Fresno State
California State University, Fresno · 2026 · Pac-12
Fresno State is 1-1 and ranked 79th in overall efficiency. Their 52nd-ranked defense carries them, with a 94th-ranked offense. They run the ball on 53% of offensive plays with a 135th-ranked rushing attack and pass the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 13th-ranked passing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ USC | Big Ten | #8 | L 0–39 | -27.9 | 0% | -17.5 | Q1 |
| 2 | vs Sacramento State | Mid-American | #135 | W 49–3 | +21.6 | 100% | 16.1 | Q4 |
| 3 | @ San José State | Mountain West | #124 | Preview | +9.4 | 71% | — | Q4 |
| 4 | vs Rice | American Athletic | #118 | Preview | +13.3 | 78% | — | Q4 |
| 5 | @ Washington State | Pac-12 | #63 | Preview | -6.6 | 35% | — | Q3 |
| 6 | vs Boise State | Pac-12 | #32 | Preview | -9.7 | 28% | — | Q2 |
| 7 | @ San Diego State | Pac-12 | #64 | Preview | -6.5 | 35% | — | Q3 |
| 9 | vs Oregon State | Pac-12 | #83 | Preview | +3.3 | 58% | — | Q4 |
| 10 | @ Utah State | Pac-12 | #92 | Preview | +0.2 | 50% | — | Q4 |
| 11 | @ Texas State | Pac-12 | #89 | Preview | -0.5 | 49% | — | Q3 |
| 12 | vs Colorado State | Pac-12 | #97 | Preview | +6.4 | 65% | — | Q4 |
2 played · 1-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Fresno State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 72nd · Finishing 92nd
Field position 11th · Finishing 66th
2.33 points per drive on offense, 1.81 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(31) | 48% / 52% | 39% | 5.8 |
| Q2(32) | 50% / 50% | 47% | 7.3 |
| Q3(13) | 54% / 46% | 38% | 9.5 |
| Q4(27) | 33% / 67% | 37% | 5.1 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(16) | 10.6 | 63% | 13.3 |
| 2nd(18) | 8.3 | 50% | 8.6 |
| 3rd(12) | 5.8 | 33% | 4.8 |
| 4th(1) | 8.0 | 0% | -7.0 |
| All (47) | — | 49% | 8.9 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(32) | 9.6 | 34% | 3.7 |
| 2nd(18) | 5.7 | 33% | 7.3 |
| 3rd(5) | 3.8 | 40% | 2.4 |
| 4th(1) | 1.0 | 0% | -2.0 |
| All (56) | — | 34% | 4.6 |
Fresno State, all games.